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07/16/2018

Trump in the UK: results, analysis, forecasts

Trump in the UK: results, analysis, forecasts
President Donald Trump greets British Prime Minister Theresa May upon her arrival, Friday, Jan. 27, 2017, to the West Wing entrance of the White House in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

On the eve of Trump’s visit, a British government report was published with proposals for future relations with the EU after Brexit (the so-called “White Book”).

Trump gave the interview to The Sun before meeting with May, in which he speaks extremely harshly about May’s policies (the headline speaks for itself: “I told May how to do Brexit.” She broke it. Trump “). Yet during the press conference, he somewhat softened his rhetorical blows against the British premier. In general, it is obvious nonetheless that Trump does not agree with how Brexit is currently being handled.

The date of the meeting was postponed several times since 2017, and then the visit was downgraded from the state level to a “working trip”, nonetheless he met with Queen Elizabeth II on Friday afternoon. At the same time, British politicians warned against possibly dangerous anti-Tramp moods and demonstrations. The mayor of London Sadik Khan allowed citizens to organize protests in the capital, as did Mamid Majid, a Somalian in charge of Sheffield).

Trump VS the “soft Brexit”

On the eve of a personal meeting with May, the president warned the British Prime Minister about the likely consequences of the “soft” Brexit, as he told British paper The Sun in a scandalous interview. In the interview he states that if May follows through with her current proposal, it would “kill” the future trade agreement between London and Washington, Trump stating that “this is not the deal that was discussed during the referendum.”

At the meeting with May, Trump confirmed that he held this opinion. He somewhat softened the rhetoric, but on the whole he delivered a clear message to the press: he is interested in an honest business agreement with Britain, without Brussels serving as an intermediary.

Trump’ s logic was that of a businessman. His official position: cooperation with the EU is unprofitable, and trade in its current form is unfair. He acts in the interests of the US, and not in the interest of globalist goals. In this regard, a “half-brexit” will not suit him. Given that the UK is one of the three strongest economies in the EU (together with France and Germany), Brexit gives America the chance to trade with the UK directly, without bypass. And the “soft” scenario of Brexit assumes only a formal exit of Britain from the EU, with the duties and financial system remaining the same – Trump is not interested in pursuing policies which don’t match his “America First” outlook.

While in London, Trump held fast to the hard-“Brexit” line. Unsurprisingly, Farage and Johnson were much more to Trump’s liking than May as leading British politicians.

Internal difficulties of the UK politics

One of the intrigues of the coming months (or perhaps even sooner) is the possible resignation of Theresa May. Firstly due to conflicts in the inner environment of Brexit, as well as the resignations of the leading figures in the negotiations (on July 9 the Brexit minister for affairs David Davis resigned, followed the next day by Foreign Affairs minister Boris Johnson).

The end of Anglo-Saxon unity?

It seems that Trump might act as a wedge to split the whole Anglo-Saxon world. From a pragmatic point of view, the UK is interesting to the United States primarily as an economic partner. In addition, it is one of the few countries that fulfilled the promise of a 2% of GDP for defense needs… nonetheless, a compromise between Trump and May is very unlikely.

 

United World International

Independent analytical center where political scientists and experts in international relations from various countries exchange their opinions and views.