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12/18/2023

The US fears the collapse of Israel

The US fears the collapse of Israel

There have been comments that there is a “crack” between the US and Israel regarding the ground operation organized by the Israeli army in Gaza.

The US’s efforts to postpone the ground operation and its warnings about the intensity of the military operations and not to spread to other regions were put forward as facts supporting the “crack” thesis.

US President Biden’s statement that “Netanyahu is a good friend, but I think he needs to change” deepened the “crack” debate.

Before analyzing the “crack” issue, I would like to remind an absolute truth;

Israel is the US outpost in the region in its current structure. And the US will never leave this outpost to its fate because of its strategic interests.

Causes of the crack between the US and Israel

From this point of view, the following facts can be listed about the crack between the US and the Israeli administration.

Israel is a country in military, economic, political and social regression.

In the military field:

After the 2006 defeat against Hezbollah, Israel’s “invincible and untouchable” image was shattered. Since then, it has lost its deterrence and many attacks have been carried out on the territories it controls.

In 2021, the clashes between Palestinian forces and Israel announced to the world Israel’s decline in security. During these clashes, the Iron Dome was ineffective against rockets fired from Gaza, and cities under Israeli control became targets. In Gaza and the West Bank, as well as in other cities under Israeli occupation, large demonstrations were organized with the participation of the Israeli Arab population.

It is known that Israeli security forces lost control of some cities for a short period of time during these protests.

In the political and social sphere:

The uprising by Arab Israeli citizens in Israeli-controlled cities in 2021 is of historical importance and struck a major blow to Israel’s claim of keeping the two communities together.

Considering that 20% of the Israeli population is of Arab origin, the size of the blow can be better understood.

On the other hand, in parallel with these uprisings, there has been an increase in protests against the Netanyahu government by Jewish citizens of Israel.

While different political groups criticizing the Netanyahu administration participated in these protests, the fact that members of the army, bureaucracy and intelligence also supported these protests revealed the importance of the situation.

It would be wrong to read the deepening divisions in Israeli politics only on the basis of Netanyahu; the roots of the polarization in the country are much deeper, and it is obvious that this situation is at a point that can affect the integrity of Israel.

In the economic sphere:

The Israeli economy is declining due to the ongoing wars.

Since 7 October, the monthly cost of the war is 2.5 billion dollars. Israel has lost 10% of its labor force due to the reserve soldiers called up for the war and the deported Gazan workers. It is a frequently mentioned fact that Israel is in a general economic crisis.

US Efforts to Save Israel from Destruction

The 7 October War began in such a situation.

All parties involved in the war, including the USA, are aware of these facts.

When we analyze the US strategy of postponing and limiting the war, which led to a “crack” between the US and Israeli administrations, in the light of these facts, we come to the following conclusions:

Underlying the US strategy of postponing and limiting the war is not only the concern of maintaining international balances, but also the concern that a possible military defeat of Israel (and the current situation on the battlefield points to Israel’s failure) would make it difficult for Israel to maintain its existence as a state.

Israel’s failure in Gaza and its methods have already threatened Netanyahu’s political future.

If the war continues and spreads to other fronts (West Bank, Hezbollah, Red Sea), Israel may fall into an inextricable political, economic and social crisis.

Approximately half a million of its citizens left Israel after the war. For Israel, which is a state built on immigration, reverse migration poses a great demographic threat.

Social polarization is increasing day by day. Even the ongoing war has failed to unite Israeli society against the “external enemy”.

Israel’s future and existence are under threat.

It would be more accurate to evaluate the US pressure on the Netanyahu government in the context of these facts.

To summarize:

Israel is committing suicide and the US is trying to take measures to prevent this suicide in order to protect its outpost in the region.

The destruction caused by Israel in Gaza is nothing but a Pyrrhic victory.

Israel is losing while winning. The facts indicate that if the process continues in this way, the possibility of Israel’s survival as a state will decline in the coming decades.

Onur Sinan Güzaltan
Onur Sinan Güzaltan was born in Istanbul in 1985. He had his Bachelors's degree in Law, from the Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne Universty /Paris XII and a Master's degree in International and European Law. He got his certificate of diploma equivalence at Galatasaray University. Later, he got a Master's degree in International Trade Law, at the Institut de Droit des Affaires Internationales, founded jointly by the Sorbonne Universty and the Cairo Universty. In this process, he had served as the Cairo representative for the Aydinlik Newspaper. He has several articles and television streams within the international press, in such as People's Daily, Al Yaum, Al Ahram, Russia Today FranceAl Youm Al Sabea. In addition to being the author of the Tanrı Bizi İster Mi?, a work that studies the 2011-2013 political period in Egypt, he had also contributed to the multi-author study titled Ortadoğu Çıkmazında Türkiye, with an article that focused on the Turkish-Egyptian relations. While currently working as a lawyer, he also writes a weekly column for Aydinlik Newspaper on the subject of international politics and geopolitics.

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